SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
15-8 | Road
52
GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
20-3 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PATRIOTS
100%
HAWKS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
JOES By 1-7 points
13.7%
JOES By 8-14 points
24.3%
GMU By 1-7 points
4.0%
GMU By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Joseph's
90
SAINT JOSEPH'S
George Mason
74
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
Saint Joseph's
68
SAINT JOSEPH'S
George Mason
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
GMU @ JOES
63 - 81
Feb 7, 2026
JOES @ GMU
52 - 60
Mar 15, 2025
JOES @ GMU
64 - 74
Feb 15, 2025
JOES @ GMU
57 - 58
Mar 13, 2024
JOES @ GMU
64 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.8% more
Saint Joseph's: 5.5
vs
George Mason: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+27.1% more
Saint Joseph's: 17.2
vs
George Mason: 12.5
Steals (L5)
+26.6% more
Saint Joseph's: 5.8
vs
George Mason: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Saint Joseph's: 74.2%
vs
George Mason: 63.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JOES Score
90.0
52
GMU Score
74.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 37.6
25.0 / 27.0
Assists
12.5 / 17.2
10.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.5 / 5.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 46.8
41.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
63.4 / 74.2
83.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 35.2
35.0 / 44.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.8
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 13.4
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
GMU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
JOES
GMU
JOES
ML
55%
18-15
51%
18-17
73%
24-9
61%
20-13
ATS
55%
18-15
60%
21-14
73%
24-9
61%
20-13
TTL
58%
19-14
54%
19-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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