Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Lancers ACU @ CBU

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-12  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

17-6  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
WILDCATS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (California Baptist)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.2%

Lancers Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

ACU By 1-7 points

0.1%

ACU By 8-14 points

0.0%

CBU By 1-7 points

1.4%

CBU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
85
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
70
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
75
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 ACU @ CBU 48 - 87
Feb 7, 2026 ACU @ CBU 63 - 65
Jan 15, 2026 CBU @ ACU 74 - 58
Jan 30, 2025 ACU @ CBU 60 - 83
Jan 18, 2025 CBU @ ACU 60 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +55.1% more
California Baptist: 42.1 vs Abilene Christian: 27.1
Blocks (L5) +41.1% more
California Baptist: 5.0 vs Abilene Christian: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +16.6%
California Baptist: 73.0% vs Abilene Christian: 56.4%
Steals (L5) +53.9% more
Abilene Christian: 11.1 vs California Baptist: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 56.0 63
CBU Score 85.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 41.2 50.0 / 16.0
Assists 7.7 / 15.1 8.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.5 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 42.1 34.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 56.4 71.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 27.1 41.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.1 / 11.1 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 14.9 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
ACU
CBU
ACU
ML
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
76% 25-8
70% 23-10
ATS
53% 18-16
55% 18-15
76% 25-8
70% 23-10
TTL
47% 16-18
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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