GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
15-7 | Road
78
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
10-12 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
0%
REBELS
100%
LOPES
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Grand Canyon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GCU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)
GCU By 1-7 points
18.6%
GCU By 8-14 points
26.8%
UNLV By 1-7 points
6.8%
UNLV By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Grand Canyon
74
GRAND CANYON
UNLV
61
UNLV
Simulated Score
Grand Canyon
72
GRAND CANYON
UNLV
78
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lopes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lopes (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
UNLV @ GCU
67 - 80
Feb 7, 2026
GCU @ UNLV
78 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.9% more
Grand Canyon: 5.1
vs
UNLV: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+19.5% more
Grand Canyon: 8.5
vs
UNLV: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+11.7% more
Grand Canyon: 35.7
vs
UNLV: 31.5
Turnovers (L5)
+28.6% more
UNLV: 14.5
vs
Grand Canyon: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GCU Score
74.0
78
UNLV Score
61.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 35.0
33.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.6 / 11.9
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 5.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 48.6
43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 67.2
95.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
31.5 / 35.7
41.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 11.3
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
GCU
UNLV
GCU
ML
50%
17-17
66%
21-11
59%
20-14
68%
21-10
ATS
65%
22-12
72%
23-9
59%
20-14
68%
21-10
TTL
62%
21-13
44%
14-18
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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