Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Bobcats EWU @ MTST

EASTERN WASHINGTON

EAGLESEWU

6-17  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

14-10  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
EAGLES --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
EaglesEWU (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

34.5%

Bobcats Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

EWU By 1-7 points

27.4%

EWU By 8-14 points

21.6%

MTST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
90
EASTERN WASHINGTON
86
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
71
EASTERN WASHINGTON
74
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 EWU @ MTST 72 - 71
Jan 8, 2026 MTST @ EWU 68 - 64
Jan 20, 2025 EWU @ MTST 64 - 74
Jan 4, 2025 MTST @ EWU 63 - 68
Mar 2, 2024 MTST @ EWU 104 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.2% more
Eastern Washington: 12.7 vs Montana State: 8.6
Turnovers (L5) +12.7% more
Eastern Washington: 12.2 vs Montana State: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Eastern Washington: 40.8% vs Montana State: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Eastern Washington: 47.8% vs Montana State: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EWU Score 90.0 72
MTST Score 86.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 40.8 36.0 / 50.0
Assists 8.6 / 12.7 9.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 47.8 41.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 76.7 70.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 32.6 24.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.4 / 5.6 8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.2 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EWU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.6
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EWU Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.6
MTST
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
EWU
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.2
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
EWU
MTST
EWU
ML
52% 16-15
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
69% 22-10
ATS
52% 16-15
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
69% 22-10
TTL
65% 20-11
48% 16-17
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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