Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Falcons SDSU @ AF

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

16-6  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-19  |  Home

54
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
AZTECS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

4.5%

Falcons Cover

95.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AF +17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)

SDSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AF By 1-7 points

3.3%

AF By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
89
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
54
SAN DIEGO STATE
73
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SDSU @ AF 88 - 54
Dec 17, 2025 AF @ SDSU 58 - 81
Jan 22, 2025 SDSU @ AF 77 - 76
Jan 8, 2025 AF @ SDSU 38 - 67
Feb 6, 2024 SDSU @ AF 77 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.8% more
San Diego State: 3.6 vs Air Force: 2.0
Steals (L5) +41.0% more
San Diego State: 8.3 vs Air Force: 4.9
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
San Diego State: 33.3 vs Air Force: 28.2
Assists (L5) +13.0% more
San Diego State: 13.3 vs Air Force: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 89.0 88
AF Score 72.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 30.1 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.3 17.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.6 1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 39.7 / 46.5 40.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 73.6 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.2 / 33.3 25.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.9 / 8.3 5.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 11.6 22.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
SDSU
AF
SDSU
ML
81% 26-6
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
69% 22-10
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
TTL
69% 22-10
75% 24-8
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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