NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-17 | Road
48
EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
9-15 | Home
52
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
LIONS
0%
DEMONS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (East Texas A&M)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETAM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETAM)
NWST By 1-7 points
15.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
5.8%
ETAM By 1-7 points
26.2%
ETAM By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
88
NORTHWESTERN STATE
East Texas A&M
95
EAST TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
71
NORTHWESTERN STATE
East Texas A&M
76
EAST TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
NWST @ ETAM
48 - 52
Feb 4, 2026
ETAM @ NWST
74 - 68
Feb 1, 2025
NWST @ ETAM
50 - 72
Jan 11, 2025
ETAM @ NWST
67 - 75
Mar 10, 2024
ETAM @ NWST
69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+116.2% more
East Texas A&M: 3.2
vs
Northwestern State: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+10.2% more
East Texas A&M: 7.0
vs
Northwestern State: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+8.8% more
East Texas A&M: 11.3
vs
Northwestern State: 10.4
Rebounding (L5)
+8.0% more
East Texas A&M: 32.0
vs
Northwestern State: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
88.0
48
ETAM Score
95.0
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 32.9
22.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.2 / 13.3
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.2 / 1.5
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 45.7
26.0 / 27.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 68.0
67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 29.6
44.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.4
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.4
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
ETAM
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
ETAM
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETAM
NWST
ETAM
NWST
ML
52%
13-12
68%
21-10
62%
15-9
77%
23-7
ATS
56%
14-11
68%
21-10
62%
15-9
77%
23-7
TTL
68%
17-8
39%
12-19
100%
24-0
100%
30-0
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