MERCER
BEARSMER
15-9 | Road
49
SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
12-12 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
BEARS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Samford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)
MER By 1-7 points
24.3%
MER By 8-14 points
13.7%
SAM By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
59
MERCER
Samford
60
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
Mercer
70
MERCER
Samford
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SAM @ MER
86 - 89
Feb 7, 2026
MER @ SAM
49 - 69
Feb 5, 2025
MER @ SAM
79 - 100
Jan 15, 2025
SAM @ MER
75 - 74
Mar 9, 2024
MER @ SAM
57 - 70
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.9%
Samford: 38.8%
vs
Mercer: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Samford: 47.3%
vs
Mercer: 42.7%
Steals (L5)
+39.5% more
Mercer: 7.5
vs
Samford: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+34.8% more
Mercer: 2.9
vs
Samford: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
59.0
49
SAM Score
60.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 30.8
32.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.4 / 14.2
7.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.9
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 42.7
48.0 / 27.0
Free Throw %
68.8 / 76.3
75.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 39.4
39.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.6 / 7.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.1
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
SAM
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
SAM
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
MER
SAM
MER
ML
65%
20-11
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
71%
22-9
ATS
68%
21-10
58%
18-13
68%
21-10
71%
22-9
TTL
35%
11-20
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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