Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Beavers GONZ @ ORST

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

22-2  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

13-12  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BEAVERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Beavers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORST +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

GONZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

GONZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

ORST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORST By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
91
GONZAGA
90
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
65
GONZAGA
88
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 ORST @ GONZ 56 - 65
Feb 7, 2026 GONZ @ ORST 81 - 61
Jan 28, 2025 ORST @ GONZ 60 - 98
Jan 16, 2025 GONZ @ ORST 89 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.0% more
Gonzaga: 8.8 vs Oregon State: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +34.5% more
Gonzaga: 3.6 vs Oregon State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Gonzaga: 15.9 vs Oregon State: 13.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Gonzaga: 45.0% vs Oregon State: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 91.0 81
ORST Score 90.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 30.8 56.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.9 / 15.9 11.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 45.0 44.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 64.4 72.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 35.6 21.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.8 1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 9.3 9.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
GONZ
ORST
GONZ
ML
45% 15-18
71% 25-10
59% 19-13
69% 20-9
ATS
48% 16-17
69% 24-11
59% 19-13
69% 20-9
TTL
55% 18-15
57% 20-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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