Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Longhorns MISS @ TEX

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-11  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Moody Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

14-9  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
LONGHORNS
100%
REBELS --
LONGHORNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Ole Miss)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 LonghornsTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

99.4%

Longhorns Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MISS -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-7 points

3.3%

MISS By 8-14 points

10.7%

TEX By 1-7 points

0.5%

TEX By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
78
OLE MISS
53
TEXAS
Simulated Score
75
OLE MISS
78
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Longhorns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Longhorns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MISS @ TEX 76 - 66
Feb 7, 2026 MISS @ TEX 68 - 79
Jan 29, 2025 TEX @ MISS 69 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.9% more
Ole Miss: 3.0 vs Texas: 2.2
Assists (L5) +48.6% more
Texas: 12.5 vs Ole Miss: 8.4
Turnovers (L5) +27.3% more
Texas: 11.5 vs Ole Miss: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Texas: 34.9 vs Ole Miss: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 78.0 68
TEX Score 53.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 32.3 31.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.5 / 8.4 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.0 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 40.5 53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 71.6 87.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 31.4 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.2 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 9.1 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
TEX Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
TEX Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MISS
TEX
MISS
ML
58% 21-15
48% 16-17
56% 19-15
52% 17-16
ATS
56% 20-16
61% 20-13
56% 19-15
52% 17-16
TTL
64% 23-13
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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