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BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

14-9  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 10:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

18-5  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
BRONCOS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (New Mexico)
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

0.0%

Lobos Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

BOIS By 1-7 points

0.0%

BOIS By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNM By 1-7 points

0.5%

UNM By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
59
BOISE STATE
92
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
72
BOISE STATE
75
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BOIS @ UNM 91 - 90
Dec 30, 2025 UNM @ BOIS 53 - 62
Mar 14, 2025 BOIS @ UNM 72 - 69
Feb 19, 2025 UNM @ BOIS 78 - 86
Jan 17, 2025 BOIS @ UNM 65 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +61.3% more
New Mexico: 7.1 vs Boise State: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Boise State: 2.8 vs New Mexico: 2.0
Assists (L5) +9.7% more
Boise State: 15.1 vs New Mexico: 13.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Boise State: 49.6% vs New Mexico: 46.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 59.0 91
UNM Score 92.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 34.7 46.0 / 43.0
Assists 13.6 / 15.1 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.8 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 49.6 52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 77.1 71.0 / 96.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 33.6 31.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.4 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.2 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
BOIS
UNM
BOIS
ML
57% 21-16
50% 16-16
74% 25-9
61% 19-12
ATS
57% 21-16
50% 16-16
74% 25-9
61% 19-12
TTL
41% 15-22
56% 18-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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