ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
4-17 | Road
77
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
9-13 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
BRAVES
--
GOLDEN LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-70.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +70.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAPB -70.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)
ALCN By 1-7 points
0.0%
ALCN By 8-14 points
0.0%
UAPB By 1-7 points
0.0%
UAPB By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Alcorn State
42
ALCORN STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
112
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Simulated Score
Alcorn State
70
ALCORN STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
75
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -70.0
D
Sim
Golden Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UAPB @ ALCN
83 - 48
Feb 7, 2026
ALCN @ UAPB
77 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
ALCN @ UAPB
65 - 63
Feb 8, 2025
UAPB @ ALCN
60 - 79
Mar 9, 2024
UAPB @ ALCN
95 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.3% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.6
vs
Alcorn State: 13.1
Turnovers (L5)
+8.6% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.8
vs
Alcorn State: 11.8
Rebounding (L5)
+8.2% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 32.4
vs
Alcorn State: 30.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 35.8%
vs
Alcorn State: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score
42.0
77
UAPB Score
112.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 30.7
53.0 / 53.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.1
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.4
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 42.3
57.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 70.4
79.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 30.0
31.0 / 22.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.6
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 11.8
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
UAPB
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAPB
ALCN
UAPB
ALCN
ML
74%
23-8
66%
21-11
73%
19-7
75%
18-6
ATS
73%
22-8-1
68%
21-10-1
73%
19-7
75%
18-6
TTL
68%
21-10
47%
15-17
100%
26-0
100%
24-0
