FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
10-12 | Road
82
NOTRE DAME
FIGHTING IRISHND
11-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
SEMINOLES
--
FIGHTING IRISH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
FSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
FSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
ND By 1-7 points
13.7%
ND By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida State
85
FLORIDA STATE
Notre Dame
77
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
Florida State
69
FLORIDA STATE
Notre Dame
75
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Irish
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Fighting Irish (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
FSU @ ND
82 - 79
Feb 4, 2025
ND @ FSU
60 - 67
Jan 13, 2024
FSU @ ND
67 - 58
Jan 17, 2023
FSU @ ND
84 - 71
Dec 21, 2022
ND @ FSU
72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.6% more
Florida State: 3.1
vs
Notre Dame: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Florida State: 6.6
vs
Notre Dame: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
Florida State: 14.4
vs
Notre Dame: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Florida State: 70.2%
vs
Notre Dame: 61.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FSU Score
85.0
82
ND Score
77.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 28.6
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
12.5 / 14.4
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.1
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 45.5
42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
61.1 / 70.2
63.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 36.1
47.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.6 / 6.6
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.8
12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
ND
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
ND
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
FSU
ND
FSU
ML
65%
20-11
64%
21-12
77%
24-7
59%
19-13
ATS
55%
17-14
55%
18-15
77%
24-7
59%
19-13
TTL
68%
21-10
48%
16-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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