Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Horned Frogs KSU @ TCU

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-12  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

13-9  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
HORNED FROGS
100%
WILDCATS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

21.2%

Horned Frogs Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TCU +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

KSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

KSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

TCU By 1-7 points

13.7%

TCU By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
KANSAS STATE
64
TCU
Simulated Score
68
KANSAS STATE
74
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TCU @ KSU 77 - 68
Feb 7, 2026 KSU @ TCU 82 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 KSU @ TCU 62 - 63
Feb 17, 2024 TCU @ KSU 75 - 72
Mar 9, 2023 TCU @ KSU 80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Kansas State: 7.1 vs TCU: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Kansas State: 34.0% vs TCU: 29.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
Kansas State: 73.9% vs TCU: 72.2%
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
TCU: 33.0 vs Kansas State: 29.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 72.0 82
TCU Score 64.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 34.0 31.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.8 18.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.3 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 40.7 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 73.9 61.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 29.1 40.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.1 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 11.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
KSU
TCU
KSU
ML
74% 26-9
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
69% 22-10
ATS
74% 26-9
62% 20-12
63% 19-11
69% 22-10
TTL
66% 23-12
47% 15-17
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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