Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Flames MOST @ LIB

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-9  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Liberty Arena (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

19-3  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
BEARS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 FlamesLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

38.2%

Flames Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIB +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

MOST By 1-7 points

27.2%

MOST By 8-14 points

20.1%

LIB By 1-7 points

21.6%

LIB By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
54
MISSOURI STATE
51
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
67
MISSOURI STATE
78
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MOST @ LIB 77 - 69
Feb 7, 2026 MOST @ LIB 76 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
Missouri State: 12.4 vs Liberty: 7.6
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
Missouri State: 8.2 vs Liberty: 6.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Missouri State: 31.6 vs Liberty: 25.8
Blocks (L5) +12.8% more
Missouri State: 2.3 vs Liberty: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 54.0 76
LIB Score 51.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 34.6 35.0 / 47.0
Assists 17.6 / 13.8 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 53.1 / 46.5 55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 64.6 64.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 25.8 / 31.6 28.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.6 / 12.4 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
MOST
LIB
MOST
ML
50% 17-17
65% 22-12
53% 18-16
62% 21-13
ATS
62% 21-13
68% 23-11
53% 18-16
62% 21-13
TTL
41% 14-20
44% 15-19
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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