Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Golden Eagles BUT @ MARQ

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

13-10  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

8-15  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
BULLDOGS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Butler)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUT -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

BUT By 1-7 points

2.7%

BUT By 8-14 points

9.3%

MARQ By 1-7 points

0.4%

MARQ By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BUTLER
49
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
70
BUTLER
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BUT @ MARQ 55 - 70
Jan 23, 2026 MARQ @ BUT 76 - 87
Jan 28, 2025 MARQ @ BUT 78 - 69
Dec 18, 2024 BUT @ MARQ 70 - 80
Feb 13, 2024 MARQ @ BUT 78 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.0%
Butler: 72.2% vs Marquette: 57.3%
Rebounding (L5) +10.1% more
Butler: 33.3 vs Marquette: 29.9
Blocks (L5) +118.8% more
Marquette: 4.2 vs Butler: 1.9
Steals (L5) +56.3% more
Marquette: 9.8 vs Butler: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 75.0 55
MARQ Score 49.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 32.6 45.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.5 / 12.7 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 43.5 46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 57.3 / 72.2 60.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 33.3 30.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.3 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.2 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
BUT
MARQ
BUT
ML
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
ATS
53% 17-15
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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