Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hokies @ Wolfpack VT @ NCSU

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

16-7  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

17-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HOKIES
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
HOKIES --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (NC State)
HokiesVT (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hokies Cover

1.1%

Wolfpack Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

VT By 1-7 points

0.8%

VT By 8-14 points

0.1%

NCSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
71
VIRGINIA TECH
94
NC STATE
Simulated Score
70
VIRGINIA TECH
75
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 VT @ NCSU 73 - 82
Jan 15, 2025 NCSU @ VT 76 - 79
Jan 20, 2024 VT @ NCSU 84 - 78
Mar 8, 2023 VT @ NCSU 77 - 97
Jan 7, 2023 NCSU @ VT 73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.8% more
NC State: 18.0 vs Virginia Tech: 11.9
Steals (L5) +19.1% more
NC State: 7.4 vs Virginia Tech: 6.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.1%
NC State: 42.9% vs Virginia Tech: 31.8%
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
NC State: 34.4 vs Virginia Tech: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 71.0 73
NCSU Score 94.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 31.8 43.0 / 28.0
Assists 18.0 / 11.9 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 41.1 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 75.6 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 31.4 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.2 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 10.3 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
VT
NCSU
VT
ML
59% 20-14
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
ATS
71% 24-10
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
TTL
71% 24-10
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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