SYRACUSE
ORANGESYR
13-10 | Road
59
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
19-3 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
ORANGE
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
ORANGE
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Syracuse)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SYR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)
SYR By 1-7 points
15.3%
SYR By 8-14 points
25.3%
UVA By 1-7 points
4.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Syracuse
86
SYRACUSE
Virginia
71
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Syracuse
65
SYRACUSE
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orange
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orange (-12.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
SYR @ UVA
59 - 72
Mar 8, 2025
UVA @ SYR
70 - 84
Dec 2, 2023
SYR @ UVA
62 - 84
Jan 30, 2023
UVA @ SYR
67 - 62
Jan 7, 2023
SYR @ UVA
66 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
Syracuse: 5.3
vs
Virginia: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Syracuse: 35.2%
vs
Virginia: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Syracuse: 47.6%
vs
Virginia: 44.7%
Assists (L5)
+27.6% more
Virginia: 15.9
vs
Syracuse: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SYR Score
86.0
59
UVA Score
71.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 35.2
33.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.9 / 12.5
18.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.3
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 47.6
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 64.8
71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.7 / 32.0
38.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.0
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 9.7
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.6
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
SYR
UVA
SYR
ML
67%
24-12
78%
25-7
72%
26-10
69%
22-10
ATS
75%
27-9
69%
22-10
72%
26-10
69%
22-10
TTL
53%
19-17
66%
21-11
100%
36-0
100%
32-0
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