Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Cyclones BAY @ ISU

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

13-9  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

20-2  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
CYCLONES
100%
BEARS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Baylor)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

100.0%

Cyclones Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BAY -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-7 points

0.5%

BAY By 8-14 points

2.7%

ISU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ISU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
94
BAYLOR
61
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
70
BAYLOR
72
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BAY @ ISU 69 - 72
Jan 7, 2026 ISU @ BAY 70 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 BAY @ ISU 55 - 74
Mar 15, 2024 BAY @ ISU 62 - 76
Feb 3, 2024 ISU @ BAY 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.6% more
Baylor: 3.4 vs Iowa State: 1.2
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Baylor: 72.4% vs Iowa State: 70.5%
Steals (L5) +50.4% more
Iowa State: 8.1 vs Baylor: 5.4
Assists (L5) +45.4% more
Iowa State: 21.0 vs Baylor: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 94.0 69
ISU Score 61.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.3 / 36.8 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 21.0 / 14.5 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.4 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 53.1 / 46.8 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 72.4 63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 34.8 37.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.1 / 5.4 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.7 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
BAY
ISU
BAY
ML
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
53% 17-15
ATS
62% 23-14
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
53% 17-15
TTL
54% 20-17
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
kcci 1 day, 7 hours ago
Iowa State's Two-Center Experiment: Will Buchanan and Pleta Shar…
iowastatedaily 1 week ago
Iowa State Guard Tamin Lipsey Wins Eligibility Battle, Set to Re…
si 2 weeks ago
Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey Wins Court Battle for Extra Season
yahoo 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Milan Momcilovic Returns to Practice, Eases Kentucky Fans' Conce…
yahoo 2 weeks, 2 days ago