Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Bison OMA @ NDSU

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

12-13  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Scheels Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

19-6  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
BISON
0%
MAVERICKS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (North Dakota State)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

2.9%

Bison Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

OMA By 1-7 points

2.2%

OMA By 8-14 points

0.4%

NDSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

NDSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
OMAHA
89
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
70
OMAHA
76
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bison (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 50 - 74
Feb 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 84 - 92
Jan 10, 2026 NDSU @ OMA 78 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 NDSU @ OMA 74 - 85
Jan 4, 2025 OMA @ NDSU 85 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +80.4% more
North Dakota State: 7.3 vs Omaha: 4.0
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
North Dakota State: 13.4 vs Omaha: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
North Dakota State: 38.7% vs Omaha: 30.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
North Dakota State: 76.0% vs Omaha: 70.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 70.0 84
NDSU Score 89.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 30.9 40.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.1 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 45.1 50.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 70.8 91.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 40.2 33.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.3 / 4.0 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.9 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
OMA
NDSU
OMA
ML
49% 17-18
79% 26-7
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
ATS
54% 19-16
76% 25-8
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
TTL
43% 15-20
73% 24-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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