VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
17-5 | Road
80
GEORGETOWN
HOYASGTWN
13-10 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
HOYAS
0%
WILDCATS
--
HOYAS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Georgetown)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GTWN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)
VILL By 1-7 points
0.8%
VILL By 8-14 points
0.1%
GTWN By 1-7 points
4.8%
GTWN By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Villanova
51
VILLANOVA
Georgetown
74
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
Villanova
77
VILLANOVA
Georgetown
68
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoyas
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hoyas (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
GTWN @ VILL
78 - 64
Feb 7, 2026
VILL @ GTWN
80 - 73
Jan 21, 2026
GTWN @ VILL
51 - 66
Mar 4, 2025
VILL @ GTWN
73 - 75
Jan 20, 2025
GTWN @ VILL
64 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.1% more
Georgetown: 2.8
vs
Villanova: 1.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Georgetown: 40.3%
vs
Villanova: 36.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Georgetown: 77.4%
vs
Villanova: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VILL Score
51.0
80
GTWN Score
74.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 36.3
28.0 / 34.0
Assists
14.4 / 14.9
11.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 44.9
40.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 73.9
78.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 33.3
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.8
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
GTWN
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
GTWN
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
VILL
GTWN
VILL
ML
67%
22-11
44%
14-18
73%
22-8
72%
23-9
ATS
58%
19-14
56%
18-14
73%
22-8
72%
23-9
TTL
58%
19-14
41%
13-19
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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