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CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

13-10  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 5:00 PM ET
Allen Arena
View Odds Details →

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

15-9  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
BISONS
100%
BEARS --
BISONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Central Arkansas)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 BisonsLIP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

99.9%

Bisons Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-7 points

0.8%

CARK By 8-14 points

4.0%

LIP By 1-7 points

0.1%

LIP By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
57
LIPSCOMB
Simulated Score
65
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
78
LIPSCOMB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bisons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Bisons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 CARK @ LIP 86 - 78
Mar 3, 2025 CARK @ LIP 66 - 84
Feb 26, 2025 CARK @ LIP 60 - 78
Jan 25, 2025 LIP @ CARK 68 - 55
Feb 17, 2024 LIP @ CARK 85 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.9% more
Central Arkansas: 3.0 vs Lipscomb: 2.1
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
Central Arkansas: 9.1 vs Lipscomb: 6.6
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
Central Arkansas: 19.2 vs Lipscomb: 16.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Central Arkansas: 35.5 vs Lipscomb: 30.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 88.0 86
LIP Score 57.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 39.9 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.4 / 19.2 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 49.8 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.1 / 71.3 68.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 35.5 35.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.1 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 8.7 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
LIP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
LIP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIP
CARK
LIP
CARK
ML
71% 22-9
67% 22-11
66% 19-10
70% 23-10
ATS
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
66% 19-10
70% 23-10
TTL
58% 18-13
50% 16-16-1
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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