TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
16-6 | Road
71
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
16-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
VOLUNTEERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
TENN By 1-7 points
0.1%
TENN By 8-14 points
0.5%
UK By 1-7 points
0.0%
UK By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
91
TENNESSEE
Kentucky
51
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Tennessee
75
TENNESSEE
Kentucky
78
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
TENN @ UK
71 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
UK @ TENN
80 - 78
Mar 28, 2025
UK @ TENN
65 - 78
Feb 11, 2025
TENN @ UK
64 - 75
Jan 28, 2025
UK @ TENN
78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.6% more
Tennessee: 6.6
vs
Kentucky: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
Tennessee: 11.6
vs
Kentucky: 8.8
Rebounding (L5)
+13.2% more
Tennessee: 43.6
vs
Kentucky: 37.9
Assists (L5)
+8.6% more
Tennessee: 16.0
vs
Kentucky: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TENN Score
91.0
71
UK Score
51.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 35.8
26.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.6 / 16.0
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.6 / 2.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 45.0
50.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 69.7
59.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 43.6
31.0 / 46.0
Steals
4.7 / 6.6
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 11.6
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TENN
UK
TENN
ML
71%
25-10
46%
17-20
72%
23-9
64%
21-12
ATS
83%
29-6
54%
20-17
72%
23-9
64%
21-12
TTL
63%
22-13
76%
28-9
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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