NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
7-14 | Road
75
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
9-15 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
PANTHERS
100%
HUSKIES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GAST +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)
NIU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NIU By 8-14 points
18.6%
GAST By 1-7 points
23.0%
GAST By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Illinois
88
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Georgia State
86
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Illinois
74
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Georgia State
78
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
NIU @ GAST
75 - 74
Nov 17, 2023
NIU @ GAST
70 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.1% more
Northern Illinois: 14.1
vs
Georgia State: 9.0
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Northern Illinois: 6.1
vs
Georgia State: 5.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Northern Illinois: 42.3%
vs
Georgia State: 37.9%
Blocks (L5)
+37.5% more
Georgia State: 3.3
vs
Northern Illinois: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIU Score
88.0
75
GAST Score
86.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 31.4
20.0 / 48.0
Assists
13.6 / 11.6
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
37.9 / 42.3
40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 62.7
73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 34.7
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.1
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 14.1
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
GAST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
NIU
GAST
NIU
ML
56%
18-14
67%
20-10
71%
22-9
66%
19-10
ATS
59%
19-13
63%
19-11
71%
22-9
66%
19-10
TTL
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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