EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
17-7 | Road
87
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-18 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
BUCCANEERS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
ETSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
ETSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
VMI By 1-7 points
20.1%
VMI By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
East Tennessee State
59
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
VMI
71
VMI
Simulated Score
East Tennessee State
78
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
VMI
65
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buccaneers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (+14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Buccaneers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
ETSU @ VMI
87 - 70
Jan 7, 2026
VMI @ ETSU
67 - 81
Feb 5, 2025
ETSU @ VMI
62 - 55
Jan 1, 2025
VMI @ ETSU
69 - 84
Mar 8, 2024
VMI @ ETSU
66 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.0% more
VMI: 9.5
vs
East Tennessee State: 7.7
Steals (L5)
+42.2% more
East Tennessee State: 9.7
vs
VMI: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+28.9% more
East Tennessee State: 2.6
vs
VMI: 1.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
East Tennessee State: 47.2%
vs
VMI: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score
59.0
87
VMI Score
71.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 37.7
34.0 / 42.0
Assists
12.3 / 13.1
14.0 / 26.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.6
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.1 / 47.2
42.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 79.5
69.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 32.3
21.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.6 / 9.7
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 7.7
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
ETSU
VMI
ETSU
ML
53%
17-15
42%
14-19
84%
27-5
70%
23-10
ATS
50%
16-16
58%
19-14
84%
27-5
70%
23-10
TTL
62%
20-12
45%
15-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
