MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
20-29 | Road
115
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
23-28 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
21.6%
POR By 1-7 points
20.1%
POR By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Portland
114
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Memphis
109
MEMPHIS
Portland
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.5
Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
POR @ MEM
122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025
POR @ MEM
96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025
MEM @ POR
99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+14.5% more
Memphis: 29.3
vs
Portland: 25.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.2%
Memphis: 79.1%
vs
Portland: 71.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Memphis: 38.1%
vs
Portland: 32.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Memphis: 48.1%
vs
Portland: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
118.0
115
POR Score
114.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 38.1
40.0 / 37.0
Assists
25.1 / 29.3
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.1
54.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 79.1
95.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
47.5 / 43.7
46.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.7
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
19.1 / 13.7
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MEM
POR
MEM
ML
53%
56-49
57%
59-44
55%
49-40
50%
41-41
ATS
62%
65-39-1
63%
65-38
55%
49-40
50%
41-41
TTL
56%
58-46-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
89-0
100%
82-0
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