MIAMI
HEATMIA
27-25 | Road
96
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
33-18 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
CELTICS
100%
HEAT
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
15.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
123
MIAMI
Boston
116
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Boston
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.9% more
Miami: 8.9
vs
Boston: 6.3
Assists (L5)
+15.8% more
Miami: 30.3
vs
Boston: 25.5
Turnovers (L5)
+9.8% more
Miami: 13.4
vs
Boston: 12.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Miami: 80.7%
vs
Boston: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
123.0
96
BOS Score
116.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 31.1
28.0 / 32.0
Assists
25.5 / 30.3
17.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 45.6
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 80.7
78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
50.5 / 51.7
50.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.3 / 8.9
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.4
16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIA
BOS
MIA
ML
57%
61-46
48%
46-50
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
61-43-3
51%
49-47
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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