Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Racers @ Salukis MUR @ SIU

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

17-7  |  Road

91
FINAL
Fri, Feb 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Banterra Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

10-13  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
SALUKIS
100%
RACERS --
SALUKIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 SalukisSIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

90.3%

Salukis Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-7 points

18.6%

MUR By 8-14 points

26.8%

SIU By 1-7 points

6.8%

SIU By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MURRAY STATE
66
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
70
MURRAY STATE
75
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Salukis Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Salukis (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 6, 2026 MUR @ SIU 91 - 81
Dec 29, 2025 SIU @ MUR 81 - 84
Feb 19, 2025 SIU @ MUR 60 - 62
Jan 22, 2025 MUR @ SIU 74 - 64
Feb 21, 2024 MUR @ SIU 68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +12.0%
Murray State: 79.2% vs Southern Illinois: 67.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Murray State: 45.4% vs Southern Illinois: 42.1%
Blocks (L5) +32.5% more
Southern Illinois: 4.6 vs Murray State: 3.5
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Southern Illinois: 8.0 vs Murray State: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 79.0 91
SIU Score 66.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.9 / 28.1 23.0 / 48.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.8 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 45.4 45.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 79.2 78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 38.1 29.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 12.5 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
SIU Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
MUR
SIU
MUR
ML
53% 17-15
58% 19-14
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
ATS
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 17-15
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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