DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
15-8 | Road
73
VCU
RAMSVCU
17-6 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
RAMS
0%
FLYERS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (VCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VCU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)
DAY By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAY By 8-14 points
13.7%
VCU By 1-7 points
26.2%
VCU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
55
DAYTON
VCU
56
VCU
Simulated Score
Dayton
68
DAYTON
VCU
72
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
DAY @ VCU
62 - 70
Mar 6, 2026
VCU @ DAY
68 - 62
Feb 6, 2026
DAY @ VCU
73 - 99
Mar 7, 2025
DAY @ VCU
79 - 76
Feb 7, 2025
VCU @ DAY
73 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
VCU: 34.6
vs
Dayton: 28.6
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
VCU: 4.5
vs
Dayton: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
VCU: 36.9%
vs
Dayton: 34.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
VCU: 46.0%
vs
Dayton: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
55.0
73
VCU Score
56.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 34.0
33.0 / 37.0
Assists
13.0 / 13.2
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 44.1
47.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 80.4
82.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 28.6
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.6
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 13.7
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
DAY
VCU
DAY
ML
72%
26-10
65%
24-13
67%
22-11
64%
23-13
ATS
81%
29-7
68%
25-12
67%
22-11
64%
23-13
TTL
58%
21-15
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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