Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Beacons EVAN @ VAL

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

5-18  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Feb 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

11-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
0%
📊
BEACONS
100%
PURPLE ACES --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Evansville)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

100.0%

Beacons Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EVAN -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

EVAN By 1-7 points

0.1%

EVAN By 8-14 points

1.1%

VAL By 1-7 points

0.0%

VAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
EVANSVILLE
58
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
65
EVANSVILLE
68
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Purple Aces Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Purple Aces (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 VAL @ EVAN 79 - 80
Feb 6, 2026 EVAN @ VAL 63 - 70
Feb 16, 2025 VAL @ EVAN 69 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 EVAN @ VAL 78 - 68
Feb 3, 2024 EVAN @ VAL 63 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.4%
Evansville: 73.1% vs Valparaiso: 59.7%
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Evansville: 11.4 vs Valparaiso: 10.1
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Evansville: 11.6 vs Valparaiso: 10.4
Steals (L5) +44.1% more
Valparaiso: 7.0 vs Evansville: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 95.0 63
VAL Score 58.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 31.2 26.0 / 40.0
Assists 10.1 / 11.4 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 43.7 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 59.7 / 73.1 80.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 28.6 44.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.9 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
EVAN
VAL
EVAN
ML
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
ATS
52% 17-16
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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