DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
12-12 | Road
76
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
15-8 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
REDBIRDS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
DRKE By 1-7 points
0.0%
DRKE By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILST By 1-7 points
0.3%
ILST By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Drake
60
DRAKE
Illinois State
95
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Drake
76
DRAKE
Illinois State
67
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 6, 2026
DRKE @ ILST
76 - 86
Dec 29, 2025
ILST @ DRKE
73 - 56
Feb 12, 2025
DRKE @ ILST
84 - 77
Jan 15, 2025
ILST @ DRKE
62 - 66
Jan 17, 2024
DRKE @ ILST
77 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.4% more
Illinois State: 5.9
vs
Drake: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+24.2% more
Illinois State: 12.3
vs
Drake: 9.9
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
Drake: 13.6
vs
Illinois State: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Drake: 73.8%
vs
Illinois State: 68.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DRKE Score
60.0
76
ILST Score
95.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 36.5
44.0 / 33.0
Assists
11.6 / 13.6
17.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.8
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 45.9
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 73.8
57.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 35.4
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 9.9
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DRKE
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
DRKE
ILST
DRKE
ML
42%
15-21
59%
20-14
71%
24-10
38%
13-21
ATS
58%
21-15
85%
29-5
71%
24-10
38%
13-21
TTL
58%
21-15
56%
19-15
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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