FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
29-24-3 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
36-14-4 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.00 | 0.971 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.971
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
PANTHERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
FLA By 1 goal
6.6%
FLA By 2-3 goals
3.7%
TB By 1 goal
17.5%
TB By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
1
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Florida
2
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025
TB @ FLA
0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.0% more
Tampa Bay: 35.8
vs
Florida: 29.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.4%
Tampa Bay: 52.4%
vs
Florida: 48.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+2.2%
Tampa Bay: 34.7%
vs
Florida: 32.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.6% more
Florida: 13.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
1.0
1
TB Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.4 / 13.2
16.0 / 5.0
Faceoff %
52.4 / 48.0
44.6 / 55.4
Hits
21.6 / 24.7
34.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
34.7 / 32.6
25.0 / 16.7
Shots on Goal
35.8 / 29.4
28.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 4.8
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
FLA
TB
FLA
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Panthers Eyeing Vladimir Tarasenko as Insurance for Brad Marchan…
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
Flames Promote Aydar Suniev and Jonathan Castagna to Fill Roster…
Bryan Baker's Dominance Out of Bullpen Puts Rays One Win from AL…