Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Mavericks SA @ DAL

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

34-16  |  Road

135
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-31  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
SPURS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

38.2%

Mavericks Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

SA By 1-7 points

27.2%

SA By 8-14 points

20.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

21.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
119
SAN ANTONIO
116
DALLAS
Simulated Score
119
SAN ANTONIO
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Spurs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 DAL @ SA 120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026 DAL @ SA 125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026 SA @ DAL 135 - 123
Oct 22, 2025 SA @ DAL 125 - 92
Mar 12, 2025 DAL @ SA 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.3% more
San Antonio: 8.1 vs Dallas: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +32.4% more
San Antonio: 7.0 vs Dallas: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
San Antonio: 13.9 vs Dallas: 11.4
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
San Antonio: 26.5 vs Dallas: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 119.0 135
DAL Score 116.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 31.8 39.0 / 41.0
Assists 22.3 / 26.5 23.0 / 34.0
Blocks 4.7 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 47.5 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 70.4 85.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 48.6 / 50.2 41.0 / 50.0
Steals 5.3 / 8.1 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 13.9 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SA
DAL
SA
ML
62% 63-39
60% 111-73
54% 44-37
58% 61-44
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 107-76-1
54% 44-37
58% 61-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
74% 134-47-3
100% 81-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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