Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearcats @ Retrievers BING @ UMBC

BINGHAMTON

BEARCATSBING

5-18  |  Road

62
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 6:00 PM ET
Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
View Odds Details →

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

13-8  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
100%
📊
RETRIEVERS
0%
BEARCATS --
RETRIEVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UMBC)
BearcatsBING (-3.5) 0 RetrieversUMBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearcats Cover

6.7%

Retrievers Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)

BING By 1-7 points

4.8%

BING By 8-14 points

1.1%

UMBC By 1-7 points

15.3%

UMBC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
BINGHAMTON
76
UMBC
Simulated Score
68
BINGHAMTON
72
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Retrievers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Retrievers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Retrievers (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Retrievers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 BING @ UMBC 62 - 79
Jan 19, 2026 UMBC @ BING 78 - 60
Feb 13, 2025 BING @ UMBC 77 - 81
Jan 4, 2025 UMBC @ BING 82 - 87
Mar 5, 2024 BING @ UMBC 72 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.6% more
UMBC: 5.6 vs Binghamton: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.1%
UMBC: 79.5% vs Binghamton: 75.4%
Blocks (L5) +52.6% more
Binghamton: 3.4 vs UMBC: 1.6
Assists (L5) +28.3% more
Binghamton: 12.5 vs UMBC: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BING Score 61.0 62
UMBC Score 76.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 33.9 35.0 / 25.0
Assists 9.0 / 12.5 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 45.1 44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 75.4 74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 33.4 40.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.6 / 4.7 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 11.0 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BING
8-23-0 (25.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -1.7
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BING
14-13-0 (51.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -1.7
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BING
15-12-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +5.2
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
BING
UMBC
BING
ML
58% 18-13
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
ATS
68% 21-10
73% 22-8
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
TTL
39% 12-19
70% 21-9
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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