Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Wolves UNF @ WGA

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

5-18  |  Road

81
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
The Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST GEORGIA

WOLVESWGA

10-12  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
📊
WOLVES
0%
OSPREYS --
WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WEST GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (West Georgia)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 WolvesWGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

3.6%

Wolves Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WGA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WGA)

UNF By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNF By 8-14 points

0.5%

WGA By 1-7 points

10.7%

WGA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
NORTH FLORIDA
104
WEST GEORGIA
Simulated Score
72
NORTH FLORIDA
75
WEST GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolves (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNF @ WGA 85 - 93
Feb 5, 2026 UNF @ WGA 81 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 WGA @ UNF 85 - 73
Jan 25, 2025 UNF @ WGA 72 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +334.0% more
West Georgia: 4.6 vs North Florida: 1.1
Steals (L5) +68.6% more
West Georgia: 5.2 vs North Florida: 3.1
Assists (L5) +29.8% more
North Florida: 18.3 vs West Georgia: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +24.3%
North Florida: 85.8% vs West Georgia: 61.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 86.0 81
WGA Score 104.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 39.8 23.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.8 / 18.3 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.6 / 1.1 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 49.1 33.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 61.5 / 85.8 71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 33.9 42.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.2 / 3.1 13.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.6 2.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
WGA Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
WGA Advantage
21-9-0 (70.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WGA
UNF
WGA
UNF
ML
58% 18-13
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
TTL
55% 17-14
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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