Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Lakers SFPA @ MERC

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

6-15  |  Road

89
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

11-12  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
RED FLASH --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 LakersMERC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

9.7%

Lakers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

SFPA By 1-7 points

6.8%

SFPA By 8-14 points

1.7%

MERC By 1-7 points

18.6%

MERC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
54
SAINT FRANCIS
67
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
68
SAINT FRANCIS
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MERC @ SFPA 94 - 79
Feb 5, 2026 SFPA @ MERC 89 - 98
Jan 30, 2025 SFPA @ MERC 58 - 62
Jan 10, 2025 MERC @ SFPA 59 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.5% more
Mercyhurst: 3.0 vs Saint Francis: 2.0
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Mercyhurst: 17.1 vs Saint Francis: 15.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Mercyhurst: 78.8% vs Saint Francis: 71.5%
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Saint Francis: 10.3 vs Mercyhurst: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 54.0 89
MERC Score 67.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.5 35.0 / 43.0
Assists 17.1 / 15.6 25.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 45.4 49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 71.5 80.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 31.5 45.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.1 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 10.3 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
SFPA
MERC
SFPA
ML
59% 20-14
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
67% 20-10
ATS
62% 21-13
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
67% 20-10
TTL
53% 18-16
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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