VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
14-9 | Road
70
MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
5-18 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BLACK BEARS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
--
BLACK BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
UVM By 1-7 points
27.2%
UVM By 8-14 points
23.0%
ME By 1-7 points
18.6%
ME By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont
58
VERMONT
Maine
53
MAINE
Simulated Score
Vermont
78
VERMONT
Maine
62
MAINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u130.5
Loss
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim
u130.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
UVM @ ME
70 - 76
Jan 15, 2026
ME @ UVM
62 - 67
Mar 11, 2025
ME @ UVM
57 - 42
Feb 15, 2025
UVM @ ME
65 - 61
Feb 1, 2025
ME @ UVM
49 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+40.9% more
Vermont: 35.8
vs
Maine: 21.1
Blocks (L5)
+9.1% more
Vermont: 4.1
vs
Maine: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Vermont: 33.1%
vs
Maine: 30.3%
Steals (L5)
+226.6% more
Maine: 10.0
vs
Vermont: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVM Score
58.0
70
ME Score
53.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 33.1
56.0 / 34.0
Assists
14.0 / 11.9
20.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 42.1
58.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 69.8
61.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
21.1 / 35.8
25.0 / 34.0
Steals
10.0 / 3.1
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 8.2
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
ME
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ME
UVM
ME
UVM
ML
45%
14-17
56%
19-15
52%
16-15
65%
22-12
ATS
55%
17-14
62%
21-13
52%
16-15
65%
22-12
TTL
55%
17-14
47%
16-18
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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