CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
23-28 | Road
109
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
31-18 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
HORNETS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CHA By 1-7 points
27.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
21.6%
HOU By 1-7 points
20.1%
HOU By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Charlotte
110
CHARLOTTE
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.0
Loss
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
HOU @ CHA
105 - 101
Feb 5, 2026
CHA @ HOU
109 - 99
Dec 23, 2024
HOU @ CHA
114 - 101
Oct 23, 2024
CHA @ HOU
110 - 105
Jan 26, 2024
HOU @ CHA
138 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.0% more
Charlotte: 15.5
vs
Houston: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.2%
Charlotte: 85.0%
vs
Houston: 71.8%
Assists (L5)
+9.5% more
Charlotte: 24.5
vs
Houston: 22.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Charlotte: 45.1%
vs
Houston: 43.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
112.0
109
HOU Score
108.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 35.0
35.0 / 40.0
Assists
22.1 / 24.5
24.0 / 21.0
Blocks
6.5 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 45.1
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 85.0
75.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
48.3 / 51.6
40.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.2 / 4.7
17.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 15.5
18.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHA
HOU
CHA
ML
61%
69-44
61%
60-39
59%
51-35
48%
40-44
ATS
62%
70-43
60%
59-40
59%
51-35
48%
40-44
TTL
51%
58-55
58%
57-42
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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