UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
15-7 | Road
75
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
13-9 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
AGGIES
0%
GAUCHOS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCSB By 1-7 points
12.2%
UCSB By 8-14 points
4.0%
UCD By 1-7 points
24.3%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
50
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Davis
59
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
78
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Davis
70
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Aggies (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
73 - 79
Feb 5, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
75 - 85
Jan 8, 2026
UCD @ UCSB
93 - 86
Jan 18, 2025
UCD @ UCSB
64 - 60
Dec 7, 2024
UCSB @ UCD
60 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+8.1% more
UC Davis: 2.5
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+18.1% more
UC Santa Barbara: 8.9
vs
UC Davis: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+12.9% more
UC Santa Barbara: 17.4
vs
UC Davis: 15.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
UC Santa Barbara: 47.8%
vs
UC Davis: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
50.0
75
UCD Score
59.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 39.2
56.0 / 31.0
Assists
15.2 / 17.4
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.4
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 47.8
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 75.7
88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 34.9
26.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.3 / 8.9
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 12.5
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UCSB
UCD
UCSB
ML
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
ATS
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
TTL
61%
20-13
47%
15-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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