Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Colonels FGCU @ EKU

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

10-13  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Baptist Health Arena
View Odds Details →

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

7-16  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
COLONELS
0%
EAGLES --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
87.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Eastern Kentucky)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 ColonelsEKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

9.7%

Colonels Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EKU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)

FGCU By 1-7 points

6.8%

FGCU By 8-14 points

1.7%

EKU By 1-7 points

18.6%

EKU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
37
FLORIDA GULF COAST
50
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
72
FLORIDA GULF COAST
78
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colonels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colonels (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Colonels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 87.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 FGCU @ EKU 74 - 76
Feb 6, 2025 EKU @ FGCU 92 - 74
Jan 25, 2025 FGCU @ EKU 77 - 81
Feb 7, 2024 FGCU @ EKU 82 - 90
Jan 12, 2023 FGCU @ EKU 76 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Eastern Kentucky: 14.2 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 12.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
Eastern Kentucky: 12.7 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
Eastern Kentucky: 72.6% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 69.7%
Blocks (L5) +36.8% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 3.7 vs Eastern Kentucky: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 37.0 74
EKU Score 50.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 40.2 30.0 / 34.0
Assists 14.2 / 12.4 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 44.3 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 69.7 80.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 35.2 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.7 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.2 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
EKU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
EKU Advantage
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
FGCU
EKU
FGCU
ML
44% 14-18
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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