IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
13-9 | Road
66
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
13-10 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
VANDALS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
IDHO By 1-7 points
1.7%
IDHO By 8-14 points
0.3%
MTST By 1-7 points
8.0%
MTST By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
80
IDAHO
Montana State
100
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
Idaho
68
IDAHO
Montana State
76
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
78 - 74
Feb 5, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
66 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
MTST @ IDHO
89 - 92
Mar 3, 2025
IDHO @ MTST
60 - 75
Jan 2, 2025
MTST @ IDHO
64 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.2% more
Montana State: 7.6
vs
Idaho: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+19.3% more
Montana State: 11.5
vs
Idaho: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+18.2% more
Montana State: 2.1
vs
Idaho: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+23.0% more
Idaho: 12.3
vs
Montana State: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
80.0
66
MTST Score
100.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 35.4
27.0 / 21.0
Assists
9.4 / 12.3
7.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.1 / 1.8
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 46.1
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
79.1 / 77.6
87.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 34.7
30.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.2
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 9.7
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
IDHO
MTST
IDHO
ML
52%
16-15
56%
20-16
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
ATS
52%
16-15
58%
21-15
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
TTL
65%
20-11
69%
25-11
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
