NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
8-15 | Road
79
IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
10-13 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BENGALS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
BENGALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
NAU By 1-7 points
0.1%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.0%
IDST By 1-7 points
1.4%
IDST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho State
99
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho State
75
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bengals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bengals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bengals (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Bengals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
NAU @ IDST
65 - 73
Feb 5, 2026
NAU @ IDST
79 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
IDST @ NAU
81 - 79
Mar 3, 2025
NAU @ IDST
82 - 79
Jan 2, 2025
IDST @ NAU
72 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+334.4% more
Idaho State: 5.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 1.2
Turnovers (L5)
+35.4% more
Idaho State: 12.2
vs
Northern Arizona: 9.0
Rebounding (L5)
+22.2% more
Idaho State: 32.1
vs
Northern Arizona: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Idaho State: 74.4%
vs
Northern Arizona: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
70.0
79
IDST Score
99.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 41.7
35.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.2 / 13.0
16.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.3 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 48.3
54.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 72.1
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 26.2
25.0 / 18.0
Steals
3.9 / 6.2
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 9.0
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDST
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDST
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
NAU
IDST
NAU
ML
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
81%
26-6
ATS
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
81%
26-6
TTL
59%
19-13
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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