Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Wildcats UNCO @ WEB

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

13-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
View Odds Details →

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

11-12  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BEARS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Weber State)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

0.0%

Wildcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WEB -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

UNCO By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.0%

WEB By 1-7 points

0.1%

WEB By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
88
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN COLORADO
72
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 UNCO @ WEB 88 - 74
Jan 10, 2026 WEB @ UNCO 76 - 71
Mar 9, 2025 WEB @ UNCO 52 - 76
Mar 3, 2025 UNCO @ WEB 68 - 63
Jan 2, 2025 WEB @ UNCO 72 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +97.3% more
Weber State: 8.1 vs Northern Colorado: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Weber State: 10.9 vs Northern Colorado: 9.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Weber State: 38.6% vs Northern Colorado: 35.2%
Blocks (L5) +75.6% more
Northern Colorado: 3.7 vs Weber State: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 49.0 88
WEB Score 88.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 35.2 12.0 / 46.0
Assists 13.7 / 16.1 8.0 / 20.0
Blocks 0.9 / 3.7 0.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.2 41.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 74.1 83.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 36.6 31.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.1 / 4.1 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.6 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
WEB
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
UNCO
WEB
UNCO
ML
73% 22-8
50% 16-16
73% 22-8
66% 21-11
ATS
63% 19-11
53% 17-15
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
TTL
83% 25-5
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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