WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
14-8 | Road
85
UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
19-3 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
SEAHAWKS
100%
TRIBE
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
0.3%
W&M By 8-14 points
1.7%
UNCW By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCW By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
89
WILLIAM & MARY
UNC Wilmington
54
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
William & Mary
68
WILLIAM & MARY
UNC Wilmington
75
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
W&M @ UNCW
85 - 78
Jan 22, 2026
UNCW @ W&M
70 - 77
Feb 24, 2025
UNCW @ W&M
79 - 70
Jan 20, 2025
W&M @ UNCW
74 - 85
Feb 22, 2024
UNCW @ W&M
81 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.0% more
William & Mary: 4.3
vs
UNC Wilmington: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+42.2% more
William & Mary: 6.6
vs
UNC Wilmington: 3.8
Turnovers (L5)
+31.3% more
William & Mary: 11.6
vs
UNC Wilmington: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+21.0% more
William & Mary: 16.8
vs
UNC Wilmington: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
89.0
85
UNCW Score
54.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 35.5
46.0 / 48.0
Assists
13.3 / 16.8
17.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.0 / 4.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 49.9
53.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 77.6
56.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 32.4
28.0 / 37.0
Steals
3.8 / 6.6
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 11.6
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCW
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
W&M
UNCW
W&M
ML
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
52%
17-16
61%
19-12
ATS
58%
19-14
63%
19-11-1
52%
17-16
61%
19-12
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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