Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Seawolves MONM @ STBK

MONMOUTH

HAWKSMONM

11-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

14-9  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
SEAWOLVES
100%
HAWKS --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Monmouth)
HawksMONM (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

100.0%

Seawolves Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONM -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)

MONM By 1-7 points

0.0%

MONM By 8-14 points

0.4%

STBK By 1-7 points

0.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
MONMOUTH
51
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
70
MONMOUTH
75
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 STBK @ MONM 69 - 82
Feb 5, 2026 MONM @ STBK 76 - 75
Feb 13, 2025 MONM @ STBK 79 - 69
Jan 2, 2025 STBK @ MONM 56 - 78
Feb 17, 2024 STBK @ MONM 61 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.7% more
Monmouth: 7.3 vs Stony Brook: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +22.5% more
Stony Brook: 37.5 vs Monmouth: 30.6
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Stony Brook: 15.2 vs Monmouth: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Stony Brook: 11.4 vs Monmouth: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONM Score 92.0 76
STBK Score 51.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 30.4 35.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.2 / 12.5 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 43.3 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 70.3 88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 30.6 41.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.3 6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.1 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.1
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
MONM
STBK
MONM
ML
61% 19-12
62% 21-13
71% 22-9
64% 21-12
ATS
61% 19-12
62% 21-13
71% 22-9
64% 21-12
TTL
65% 20-11
59% 20-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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