Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Trailblazers UTA @ UTU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

14-7  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Burns Arena
View Odds Details →

UTAH TECH

TRAILBLAZERSUTU

13-11  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TRAILBLAZERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
TRAILBLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UTAH TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Utah Tech)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 TrailblazersUTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

11.5%

Trailblazers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTU)

UTA By 1-7 points

8.0%

UTA By 8-14 points

2.2%

UTU By 1-7 points

20.1%

UTU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
61
UT ARLINGTON
73
UTAH TECH
Simulated Score
72
UT ARLINGTON
76
UTAH TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trailblazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trailblazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trailblazers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Trailblazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 UTU @ UTA 50 - 63
Feb 5, 2026 UTA @ UTU 84 - 87
Jan 15, 2026 UTA @ UTU 56 - 52
Feb 1, 2025 UTU @ UTA 71 - 73
Jan 9, 2025 UTA @ UTU 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.4%
Utah Tech: 43.0% vs UT Arlington: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Utah Tech: 48.4% vs UT Arlington: 41.6%
Blocks (L5) +41.3% more
UT Arlington: 4.6 vs Utah Tech: 2.7
Rebounding (L5) +21.9% more
UT Arlington: 41.4 vs Utah Tech: 32.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 61.0 84
UTU Score 73.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.0 / 30.6 35.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.5 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.6 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 41.6 49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 62.7 / 76.8 70.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 41.4 41.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.6 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 13.4 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UTU
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UTU Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
UTU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTU
UTA
UTU
UTA
ML
68% 23-11
50% 16-16
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
ATS
65% 22-12
59% 19-13
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
TTL
65% 22-12
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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