WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINEERSWVU
14-8 | Road
59
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
11-11 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
BEARCATS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
WVU By 1-7 points
1.4%
WVU By 8-14 points
0.2%
CIN By 1-7 points
6.8%
CIN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
West Virginia
67
WEST VIRGINIA
Cincinnati
88
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
West Virginia
73
WEST VIRGINIA
Cincinnati
78
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o127.5
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u127.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
WVU @ CIN
59 - 54
Jan 6, 2026
CIN @ WVU
60 - 62
Feb 19, 2025
CIN @ WVU
59 - 62
Feb 2, 2025
WVU @ CIN
63 - 50
Mar 12, 2024
WVU @ CIN
85 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.4% more
Cincinnati: 13.9
vs
West Virginia: 12.0
Turnovers (L5)
+9.1% more
Cincinnati: 13.5
vs
West Virginia: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Cincinnati: 70.7%
vs
West Virginia: 68.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WVU Score
67.0
59
CIN Score
88.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 30.6
30.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.9 / 12.0
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
39.5 / 40.6
36.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 68.4
78.0 / 52.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 33.3
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.3 / 5.2
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.4
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.2
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.2
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WVU
CIN
WVU
ML
67%
22-11
63%
22-13
74%
23-8
76%
26-8
ATS
64%
21-12
60%
21-14
74%
23-8
76%
26-8
TTL
67%
22-11
40%
14-21
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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