Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Lancers TAR @ CBU

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

11-11  |  Road

55
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

16-6  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
LANCERS
100%
TEXANS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

98.6%

Lancers Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

5.8%

TAR By 8-14 points

15.3%

CBU By 1-7 points

1.1%

CBU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
84
TARLETON STATE
62
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
68
TARLETON STATE
72
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TAR @ CBU 67 - 82
Feb 5, 2026 TAR @ CBU 55 - 56
Jan 3, 2026 CBU @ TAR 76 - 81
Mar 13, 2025 TAR @ CBU 51 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 TAR @ CBU 48 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Tarleton State: 9.8 vs California Baptist: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Tarleton State: 14.8 vs California Baptist: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
Tarleton State: 78.0% vs California Baptist: 69.4%
Blocks (L5) +128.0% more
California Baptist: 5.0 vs Tarleton State: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 84.0 55
CBU Score 62.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 24.4 20.0 / 0.0
Assists 9.6 / 9.4 4.0 / 5.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.2 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 37.2 31.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 78.0 80.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 33.1 46.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.7 / 9.8 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 14.8 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
TAR
CBU
TAR
ML
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
76% 25-8
66% 21-11
ATS
53% 18-16
69% 22-10
76% 25-8
66% 21-11
TTL
47% 16-18
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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