MERCER
BEARSMER
15-8 | Road
75
CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
9-14 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
MOCS
100%
BEARS
--
MOCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
MER By 1-7 points
20.1%
MER By 8-14 points
27.2%
UTC By 1-7 points
8.0%
UTC By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
80
MERCER
Chattanooga
68
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
Mercer
68
MERCER
Chattanooga
72
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mocs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Mocs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
UTC @ MER
94 - 90
Feb 5, 2026
MER @ UTC
75 - 79
Mar 8, 2025
MER @ UTC
61 - 76
Feb 1, 2025
MER @ UTC
84 - 93
Jan 1, 2025
UTC @ MER
94 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.3% more
Mercer: 7.3
vs
Chattanooga: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+31.9% more
Mercer: 16.9
vs
Chattanooga: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+20.6% more
Mercer: 42.1
vs
Chattanooga: 33.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Mercer: 48.5%
vs
Chattanooga: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
80.0
75
UTC Score
68.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 33.7
45.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.5 / 16.9
16.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 48.5
54.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 75.9
76.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 42.1
25.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.9 / 7.3
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 10.1
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
UTC
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
MER
UTC
MER
ML
48%
15-16
55%
17-14
53%
16-14
71%
22-9
ATS
52%
16-15
58%
18-13
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
TTL
77%
24-7
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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