RIDER
BRONCSRID
3-18 | Road
52
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
15-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
RED FOXES
0%
BRONCS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
RID By 1-7 points
0.1%
RID By 8-14 points
0.0%
MRST By 1-7 points
1.4%
MRST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
53
RIDER
Marist
82
MARIST
Simulated Score
Rider
68
RIDER
Marist
70
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
RID @ MRST
52 - 81
Jan 11, 2026
MRST @ RID
71 - 49
Jan 18, 2025
RID @ MRST
64 - 57
Feb 10, 2024
MRST @ RID
77 - 62
Jan 14, 2024
RID @ MRST
60 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.4% more
Marist: 4.2
vs
Rider: 2.8
Steals (L5)
+39.6% more
Marist: 6.3
vs
Rider: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
Marist: 10.4
vs
Rider: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Marist: 82.5%
vs
Rider: 77.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
53.0
52
MRST Score
82.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 42.4
61.0 / 13.0
Assists
13.2 / 12.8
23.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.0
58.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 77.1
100.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 33.3
34.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.3 / 4.5
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 9.5
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
RID
MRST
RID
ML
55%
17-14
72%
21-8
61%
19-12
66%
19-10
ATS
74%
23-8
72%
21-8
61%
19-12
66%
19-10
TTL
52%
16-15
62%
18-11
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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