MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
14-9 | Road
87
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
10-14 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
WARRIORS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
MRMK By 1-7 points
8.0%
MRMK By 8-14 points
2.2%
MSM By 1-7 points
20.1%
MSM By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
61
MERRIMACK
Mount St. Mary's
73
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
Merrimack
60
MERRIMACK
Mount St. Mary's
63
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
MRMK @ MSM
87 - 70
Jan 2, 2026
MSM @ MRMK
65 - 75
Mar 14, 2025
MSM @ MRMK
57 - 55
Jan 31, 2025
MSM @ MRMK
66 - 58
Feb 3, 2022
MRMK @ MSM
53 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+49.7% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.9
vs
Merrimack: 9.3
Rebounding (L5)
+22.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 38.4
vs
Merrimack: 31.4
Steals (L5)
+45.2% more
Merrimack: 9.4
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 5.2
Blocks (L5)
+38.7% more
Merrimack: 4.9
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
61.0
87
MSM Score
73.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 33.5
38.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.5 / 11.6
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.9
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 42.5
43.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 79.1
55.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 31.4
40.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.2 / 9.4
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 9.3
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
MSM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
MSM
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
MRMK
MSM
MRMK
ML
53%
17-15
47%
16-18
61%
19-12
65%
22-12
ATS
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
61%
19-12
65%
22-12
TTL
81%
26-6
62%
21-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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